The 2024 US Presidential Election and Crypto

Introduction

The U.S. presidential election is held every four years and is a major event that influences not only American policy but also global economic trends. This document provides a brief overview of the U.S. election process, with a focus on Donald Trump’s relationship to cryptocurrencies.

U.S. Presidential Election Basics

1. Election Cycle and Term Limits

   • The presidential election occurs every four years.

   • A president can serve a maximum of eight years (two terms).

2. Primaries and Party Conventions

   • The two major parties, Democrats and Republicans, hold primaries and caucuses in each state to select their presidential candidates.

   • Each party formally nominates its candidate at the party convention.

3. General Election and Electoral College

   • Election Day: Held on the Tuesday following the first Monday in November.

   • Electoral College: Voters do not directly elect the president; instead, they vote for electors who then vote for the president.

   • Each state’s number of electors = number of its senators (2) + number of its representatives in the House.

   • A total of 538 electors exist, and 270 electoral votes are needed to win.

4. Winner-Takes-All System

   • In most states, the candidate with the most votes takes all of that state’s electoral votes.

   • Maine and Nebraska use a proportional system.

5. Electoral Vote and Inauguration

   • In December, electors officially cast their votes.

   • The electoral votes are counted in a joint session of Congress in January.

   • Inauguration Day is on January 20th of the year following the election.

Trump’s Engagement with Cryptocurrencies

1. Appointments

   • Donald Trump has appointed Elon Musk (CEO of X/SpaceX/Tesla) and Vivek Ramaswamy (former Republican candidate) to lead the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), an advisory body focusing on government cost reduction.

   • The acronym “DOGE” humorously shares the name with the popular meme coin, Dogecoin.

2. World Liberty Financial (WLFI)

   • Trump and his family have launched a cryptocurrency project called World Liberty Financial.

   • WLFI plans to offer a peer-to-peer (P2P) lending platform, reflecting Trump’s interest in crypto-related financial services.

Polymarket and Election Predictions

• Polymarket is a decentralized prediction market where users can wager on future events—everything from political outcomes to sports results.

• During the presidential election, Polymarket gained popularity, with open interest peaking at $500 million.

• Prices on Polymarket often serve as real-time indicators of each candidate’s probability of winning, complementing traditional opinion polls.

Conclusion

Donald Trump is currently projected to win the upcoming election and take office as president. He is seen as relatively pro-crypto, suggesting his policies and actions could significantly influence the cryptocurrency market. Given the strong regulatory role the United States plays in this sector, the market impact of Trump’s administration will be important to watch, and ongoing monitoring is advised.